China’s macro-economy has been developing rapidly for more than thirty years, and has entered the second strong economic entity. The rapid development of the economy has brought great impetus to China’s real estate market, making the real estate market bubble and gradually expanding.
Is there a bubble in China’s house prices? Economist Xie Guozhong points out that the bubble is huge and has already entered the real estate market, and many economists point out that the bubble is not serious and will not enter the real inflection point.
In fact, for housing prices, all countries in the world have a common way of calculation, that is, the highest price to a person does not eat or drink ten years of income can buy a set of house, if it is the installment payment is only twenty years in addition to the daily expenses can pay off the loan; and the distance from the house is in half an hour by bus. Arrive. Then we can calculate the per capita income and working distance of each city, and you will know the price of the house. For example, the highest school district in Beijing now reaches 300 thousand / square meter. And the price of the school district room is so high that the income of a person who buys a house must be more than 3 million of his annual salary before he can buy it.
Then look at the statistics, such as the beginning of the statistics of Beijing house prices, is the second ring side of the house prices, then the real estate rapidly expanded, immediately statistics to the three rings and four rings and five rings until today including the average price of the housing price in the suburbs of Beijing. It seems that house prices are not rising well, but in fact, house prices in the second ring have risen more than ten times or more in the past ten years, and income is not likely to reach a ten fold increase. This can be compared to the house price and income gap.
Look at Shanghai, ten years ago, the main real estate market was within the inner ring, and the housing price was less than ten thousand. Now the housing price in the inner ring can hardly be less than one hundred thousand. The same increase is more than ten times.
Looking at the real estate market, of course, we need to see the relationship between supply and demand, because there are supply and demand in the market. At present, there are nearly 100 million vacant housing and stock rooms in the country. What does that mean? It said that the housing of one hundred million households could be solved, and the affordable housing will also develop millions of homes this year. It is expected that one hundred million sets will be reached by the end of the year.
Let’s look at the developers. At present, many developers have transferred domestic development to the foreign real estate market, and the funds have also flowed out.
Looking at the land market, the proportion of land filming increases constantly, which indicates that market demand is also gradually decreasing.
There are many and many factors that we can study and relate to, and we finally find that the real estate market is really going to get into an inflection point, that is, it can’t develop in a big way or even fall into a falling cycle.
The elevator market now relies more than 80% on the real estate market, although there are old elevator replacement and old building renovation with elevator, but this is also a market behavior. The replacement of the elevator from fifteen years ago to the installation of statistics, according to the information of the Chinese elevator network, fifteen years ago in 2000, the National Elevator annual output is only 10000, and ten years ago, only more than 40000. In 2013, it reached 550 thousand units, which means that elevator production and sales are highly dependent on the real estate market. The replacement of old staircases will not exceed fifty thousand units a year in the next five years.
China has nearly 700 elevator manufacturing enterprises, and the actual total capacity is 750 thousand units per year. In 2013, the surplus capacity was 200 thousand. So if elevator production and sales drop to 500 thousand or lower in 2015, what will the domestic elevator market do?
We look at the history of the elevator industry. In China, the elevator market and enterprises began to build in 50s. In the early 70s, there were only 14 elevator industry licenses in the country, and the sales of elevator in 70s were less than 1000 units. At the end of 90s, the elevator sales volume reached 10000 units per year, and last year reached 550 thousand units.
According to the analysis of the macro market, the real estate market and the elevator market, the elevator industry in China will also enter a period of adjustment, and this adjustment period is not only the adjustment of the overall production and marketing of the elevator, but will be a major blow to some backward enterprises and small enterprises.
If the adjustment period of the real estate market comes, then the adjustment of the elevator industry will also come. And there will be a fatal blow to the elevator enterprises that are not featured in our development, have poor brand effect and lag behind in technological level.
In a family, we need to think about how to live better in the future, and an enterprise should also see how to survive in the future. When the turning point of the real estate market comes, if the elevator industry itself does not think, do not prepare, do not respond to the strategy, then we will not be able to develop, or even survive.
Of course, worrying is also possible, but it is more important to be prepared.
China’s elevator industry has rapidly developed to the world’s first production and marketing, but we have not actually been able to surpass the international whole machine products. We have always been developing the elevator industry with the United States and Europe and Japan, which has not adapted to the future development. China must have the elevator technology leading the world, such as the fourth generation without the machine room elevator like the whole machine technology, we need to carry on the thinking breakthrough, need to research and development, we need to work together.
Facing the severe economic situation and the turning point of the real estate market, are you ready to deal with it? Are you ready to deal with your business? Are our industry colleagues ready to deal with it?